AI Demand sawv tawm thaum Consumer Electronics Face Tariff Headwinds; 2H25 Peak Season At Risk

AI Demand sawv tawm thaum Consumer Electronics Face Tariff Headwinds; 2H25 Peak Season at Risk

Tsoomfwv Meskas tau npaj yuav txiav txim siab ua pauj hnyav pib txij lub Yim Hli 1st, suav nrog txog li 30% ntawm kev xa tawm los ntawm Mexico, 15% ntawm EU, thiab 15-36% ntawm cov chaw tseem ceeb hauv Asia xws li Nyiv, Kaus Lim Qab Teb, Thaib, thiab Malaysia. Nrog rau cov neeg siv khoom lag luam hauv Asmeskas kev loj hlob tau hloov kho tsuas yog 0.5% hauv Q1- qis tshaj txij li muaj kev sib kis thoob ntiaj teb -TrendForce sau tseg tias qhov cuam tshuam ntawm pem hauv ntej- thauj khoom thov thiab khaws cia ua ntej ntawm cov nqi se tau ploj mus. Qhov no ua rau muaj kev tsis paub tseeb ntawm qhov rov qab ib txwm muaj- mus rau tsev kawm ntawv lub caij nyoog siab tshaj plaws hauv Q3, nrog rau MLCC kev txiav txim siab huab cua raws li qhov tshwm sim.

TrendForce tej yaam num uas ib nrab xyoo ntawm 2025 yuav tsum pom ib tug meej cais nyob rau hauv kev thov. Kev txiav txim rau nruab nrab - mus rau qis- kawg cov neeg siv khoom siv hluav taws xob zoo li smartphones, phau ntawv sau, thiab cov ntsiav tshuaj tau kwv yees kom nyob twj ywm los yog loj hlob nyob ib puag ncig 5% hauv Q3, vim tias ODMs siv txoj hauv kev kom txuag tau ntau dua thiab tsis txhob muaj qhov siab tshaj plaws - lub caij nyoog cov tswv yim. Ntau tus neeg muag khoom kuj tau maj xa khoom xa tuaj hauv 1H25 kom tsis txhob muaj cov nqi se, ua kom muaj txiaj ntsig zoo rau kev thov los ntawm ib nrab xyoo tom ntej.

Hauv qhov sib piv, AI neeg rau zaub mov xav tau tseem liab -kub. Cov ODMs loj xws li Foxconn, Quanta, thiab Wistron pom kev txhawb nqa hauv lub Tsib Hlis thiab Lub Rau Hli cov nyiaj tau los nrog NVIDIA's GB200 thiab GB300 platforms ob qho tib si nce kev xa khoom hauv Q3. MLCC stocking thov tau dhia ze li ntawm 25% QoQ, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau nruab nrab - thiab siab -qib cov neeg siv khoom-qib MLCCs, tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo rau cov neeg xa khoom xws li Murata, Samsung, thiab Taiyo Yuden.

Polarization hauv kev siv tus nqi ua rau muaj peev xwm thiab kev tswj cov khoom lag luam tseem ceeb

Qhov tsis sib xws hauv kev lag luam xav tau ua rau muaj qhov sib txawv tseem ceeb hauv MLCC tus neeg siv khoom siv. TrendForce qhov kev tshawb fawb Lub Xya Hli qhia tau hais tias cov neeg muag khoom Nyij Pooj thiab Kaus Lim Qab Teb tau tsom mus rau siab -kawg AI daim ntawv thov ua haujlwm nyob ib puag ncig 90% muaj peev xwm. Suav cov khoom lag luam nyob ntawm kwv yees li 75%, thaum cov tuam txhab Taiwanese tau nqis mus rau thaj tsam 60%. Qhov no qhia txog kev ceev faj thoob plaws hauv cov khoom siv, nrog kev tswj xyuas nruj ntawm ob lub peev xwm thiab cov khoom muag hauv kev teb rau kev lag luam tsis paub tseeb.

Raws li kev nce nqi tariff siab, MLCC cov neeg muab khoom lag luam tau nrawm rau kev teeb tsa cov kev sim rov qab thiab cov kab ntim khoom nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Asia kom muaj kev tsim khoom hauv zos thiab txo cov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev rau txim US tariffs targeting mislabeling. TrendForce cia siab tias nyob rau hauv cheb retaliatory tariffs, OEMs yuav raug yuam kom restructuring bids thiab kis tus nqi tariff nyob rau hauv cov saw, nrog rau cov khoom muab kev pab cuam, ODMs, logistics tuam txhab uas muag, advertising koom tes, thiab distributors.

Thaum kawg, qhov no tuaj yeem ua rau qhov kawg siab dua - cov nqi khoom. Raws li OEMs pib tso tawm 2026 RFQs rau cov xov tooj smartphones thiab phau ntawv sau nyob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo ntawm lub xyoo, tag nrho cov saw hlau yog bracing rau hnyav tariffs - ntsig txog tus nqi siab thiab ntxiv cov npoo compression.